The Limitarian and Cornucopian visions for the future

Environmentalists are deeply divided on how best to respond to our various environmental problems and on whether technology and economic growth are the solution to our problems or the source of them.

Modernity is defined by change, and a change that has been gathering pace. As colonialisation, industrialisation, and, more recently, digitisation swept the world they transformed what went before, connecting, accelerating, and upending life. This has had enormous societal and environmental impacts.

Our growing technological prowess has greatly reduced, if not solved, many of the problems that plagued humanity — hunger, disease and disaster all take much smaller tolls today than in the past. The world today supports a population four times larger than that of a century ago, with far fewer people living in absolute poverty. The fact that the economy is over 25 times larger than it was one hundred years ago is a big part of this.

However, the benefits of this rapid growth are not evenly distributed, to put it mildly, and our unprecedented powers have come with unprecedented environmental impacts. If we continue on our current course, doubling, doubling, and doubling again the size of the economy, it seems obvious that we will see ever-rising demands for resources and an ever-rising environmental impact. Surely, there must be limits to growth on a finite planet (Figure 1), and, perhaps, sooner rather than later, we will crash into them.

Figure 1. Limits to Growth was an influential report published in 1972 that used computer models to estimate the evolution of the global population, economy, and various key resources. It predicted an environmental catastrophe would likely unfold over the coming century if business as usual continued.

The Limitarian Vision

This is what I think of as the "limitarian" vision — There are hard environmental and resource limits on economic growth and so we better change our ways. This view is behind calls for “degrowth”, i.e., for rearranging our social and economic order to halt and then reverse economic growth for the sake of planet and people. While many details of the degrowth agenda are only vaguely articulated, core goals are dismantling the destructive dynamism of unfettered capitalism and curtailing the excessive consumption of the wealthy.

For many with this vision, climate change is a strong argument in their favour. Decarbonizing the energy and industrial base of the economy in time to limit warming to safe levels is going to be incredibly challenging; how much harder will it be in a world whose energy and material demands keep doubling?

This perspective is widespread among environmental researchers. In fact, a recent study found that green growth was rejected by around 85% of Western researchers publishing on climate policies¹.

The Cornucopian Vision

An alternative perspective draws hope from the long history of seemingly intractable environmental and resource problems that are now largely forgotten. From guano mines as sites of colonial struggle² and copper shortages threatening to halt the communication revolution, to urban areas choked with manure and minds stunted by lead pollution, new technologies and solutions — the haber-bosch process, fibre optic cables, the car, and unleaded petrol, respectively — have time after time resolved these issues.

I think of this perspective as the “Cornucopian” vision, named after the the Horn of Plenty from Greek myth that provided unending abundance (Figure 2). According to this view, while today’s resource and environmental problems impose costs and difficulties on society, we shouldn’t see these as absolute limits. The dynamism of our modern, capitalist societies mean that these problems spur researchers, innovators and investors to develop solutions which defuse, bypass or transform the problems.

Figure 2. Salvator Rosa’s Allegory of Plenty showing Fortuna with the Horn of Plenty or cornucopia.

For example, as demand for lithium-ion batterires surges, new mining technologies are lowering the cost of extracting lithium, new lithium mines are opening that were previously uneconomical, and sodium-ion batteries are being developed as an alternative.

A tempered version of this Cornucopian vision of the future can be found in the Ecomodernist Manifesto (Figure 3). The hope of ecomodernist environmentalists is that with sufficient foresight and effort, our environmental impacts can be decoupled from economic growth using new technologies, allowing us to achieve both human development and environmental protection.

Figure 3. An Ecomodernist Manifesto outlined a vision where economic growth and environmental destruction are decoupled.

A clash of visions

Both visions rest on presumptions that will not hold universally. The limitarian vision sees today's environmental and material problems as binding limits, despite past success in overcoming similar problems. While the cornucopian vision believes in the boundless capacity of technology and capitalism to overcome every challenge, despite our mounting environmental problems.

At their extremes both of these visions are destructive. Presuming that the blind hand of the market or some wonder technology will always solve our problems is complacent and undermines the long-term investments needed to tackle our global environmental problems. While presuming that today’s environmental limits are absolute can breed pessimism and deep despair, and can also lead to the rejection of technologies that could reduce their impacts.

How limiting today’s various environmental and resource problems will be is unclear, but the needs of the poor for just economic growth is undeniable. As we navigate the narrowing path towards a more sustainable future it seems clear to me that neither vision alone will suffice, we’ll need a mix of both Cornucopian hope and Limitarian restraint.

FIN

1. Well, 85% of researchers from wealthy nations. Among researchers from developing nations a majority supported green growth.

2. Before the advent of the Haber-Bosch process guano deposits were highly prized sources of fixed nitrogen, an essential input for agriculture and the arms industry.